Head Coach Hold’em: The Hands Dealt to Each New Coach in the NFL This Year
Much like the Jerod Mayo disaster; it’s an educated gamble after all.
It’s safe to say we’ve passed the worst of the NFL off-season. The dead air filled with zero news and radio silence. The desert that comes after the Super Bowl, and far enough after the draft. Now fan bases can start discussing how mandatory OTAs are going. Rookies, players returning from injuries, athletes either destined for breakouts or already at the top of the chain. Of course we also get to see how every team meshes with their training staff.
Unless a team is insane enough to make some coaching changes in *June*; there are seven head coaching changes from 2024. Changes have been made by the Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, New York Jets, and the Las Vegas Raiders. While it’s too soon to think about the hot seat, it’s important to see the situation each coach has been put into. Are any of them playoff bound?
How well did the draft go for them? Who stacks up in prior head coaching experience at a college or NFL level? Are there good, bad, or new coordinators? From worst to best, here are the hands dealt to each new hire for the upcoming season.
#7: Kellen Moore - Pair of 4’s
The 4’s being an homage to Derek Carr’s retirement. While Kellen Moore just had massive success as OC for the Super Bowl-winning Eagles, he’s at the bottom for a reason. The transition from Jalen Hurts to a super uncertain QB room who just lost their only veteran is an obvious blow. However, former Eagles QB coach Doug Nessmeier has joined New Orleans as well. Considering the Saints have a career 1,500 yards at the position right now, this was a much needed move. Kellen spent four seasons as the OC for the Dak Prescott-led Cowboys, going 38-28 in that span. (A cumulative point differential of +332.)
He has yet to head coach any team, which unfortunately still brings more to the table than the current Saints squad. New Orleans heads into 2025 having lost Carr, Taysom Hill, and Ryan Ramczyk. The latter being replaced by this year’s ninth pick, Kelvin Banks Jr. While Alvin Kamara showed signs of his prime self last year, he’s never started 15 games in a season. Turning 30 before Week 1, the dual-threat remains the one valuable skill player on this offense. (Chris Olave was on pace for two touchdowns and under 900 yards before missing half the year.)
While the defense has been solid behind veterans Cameron Jordan and Demario Davis, they’ll both be 36 come their season debut. Moore/Nessmeier will need to whisper some QB magic and make some chemistry for this team after last year’s drastic fall. They could easily pick higher than #9 next year.
#6 - Pete Carroll - Three of a Kind
After taking a year off from a coaching position, Carroll enjoyed 2024 in the Seattle suites. This will be his first year in a new environment since 2009, when he was 57. A legend in Washington, Carroll made the playoffs 10 out of 14 seasons, yet only went 18-16 when paired with Geno Smith. It’ll be interesting to see how the duo operates with Carroll back at the helm around very different weapons. Seattle has been a run-first city for some time between Marshawn Lynch, Chis Carson, Rachaad Penny, Kenneth Walker, and Russell Wilson. (Something something, Seahawks-Patriots Super Bowl joke, etc.)
The obvious positives for Las Vegas include highly-hyped Ashton Jeanty, Brock Bowers, and prime Max Crosby. Three great building blocks assuming Jeanty mostly lives up to said hype, and Bowers doesn’t become a one-hit wonder. Jakobi Meyers also seemed to show #1 WR potential with his first 1k yard season despite missing two games. The defense remains under DC Patrick Graham including the addition of LB Germaine Pratt. While Pratt provides some depth, Graham’s defenses have averaged 20th in points allowed and 19th in yards over three seasons.
While there are some young pieces Carroll can mentor; Geno had a TD/Int ratio of 21:15 last year. He’ll be 35 before their bye week. And LV has made it clear Gardner Minshew and Aiden O’Connell aren’t meant to be solutions. Regardless, we can expect a transitional year for The Raiders and at least 400 carries a game for Jeanty.
#5: Aaron Glenn - Straight
This was the hardest one to place. The modern Jets are a weird franchise. I know this. You know this. Let’s look at it. Aaron Glenn had moderate success with Detroit on the defensive side. In his first year of 2021 the team went bottom five in points and yards allowed. By his last year in 24’, those numbers improved to 7th and 20th respectively. In the last three years, six Jets QBs have started a game. Justin Fields will make #7 with little competition in Tyrod Taylor. Combined with Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson, there’s a legit trio here. Obstacles include past inconsistencies from Fields himself, but the defense as well. Quinnen Williams and Will McDonald IV were the only two to record over four sacks last year, while the whole team only picked off opposition seven times.
The Jets also took an offensive tackle in Armand Membou to bolster the o-line issues. On the bright side, the Jets now have a QB who has way more mileage in their legs than a 40 year old. New York is in for some fortune if Glenn can improve the Jets’ defense the same as Detroit. Perhaps Sauce Gardner can bounce back in Aaron’s scheme, which still aligns under a 4-3 coverage but hopefully leads to more than one seasonal interception for the former top three pick.
#4: Liam Coen - Flush
Travis Hunter, Travis Etienne rumors, the community: duuvallll!! Sorry, it’s very difficult to not do that at least once. Anyways, Coen has been coaching at a college or professional level since 2010. His most recent tenures have been bouncing between Kentucky and the LA Rams, winning a championship with the latter in 2022.
Working under Todd Bowles in Tampa last year: the team was pretty successful despite Rachaad White’s regression along with major injuries to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin Jr. While Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis have left Jacksonville, the offense is clearly manned by Trevor Lawrence, Brian Thomas Jr, and Travis Hunter. Doug Pederson’s offense and defense took big steps back last year with a different DC and surprisingly the same OC. Now Anthony Campanile and Grant Udinski both step in looking to triumph over their predecessors.
While a brand new OC, DC and HC in one season are tough, it’s only up for this squad. The aforementioned offense combined with defensive pieces Arik Armstead, Trayvon Walker, Darnell Savage and Hunter (again) is some good groundwork. A fully healthy Lawrence this season without Doug Pederson or Urban Meyer might could give him the push people have been waiting 3-4 years for.
#3: Mike Vrabel - Full House
Much like Glenn was a former player for the Jets, Vrabel reunites with New England for the first time since 2008. Jerod Mayo disappointed quicker than a 40 yard dash, leading to the Patriots hiring the man who went 54-45 in six seasons with the Tennessee Titans.
Their record started declining the year AJ Brown went to Philly, and the team hasn’t met the same success to this day. Vrabel spent an off year in Cleveland and now walks into an incredibly young team. Similar to Pete Carroll, Vrabel is used to having an absolute beast at running back to centerpiece the team. Not only is that not true now, but a committee of Rhamondre Stevenson, Antonio Gibson, and rookie Treveyon Henderson muddy the backfield. Drake Maye is due for a big season two and possesses way more rushing capabilities than Mike is used to. (Having dealt with Ryan Tannehill five of his six seasons there.) Stefon Diggs has been brought in to help with the matter while training the toddler WR room.
Defensively; it’s a blessing that coordinator Demarcus Covington has gone to Green Bay. Last year the Pats gave up the 3rd most points in franchise history. Additionally, replacement Terrell Williams worked alongside Vrabel during his entire Tennessee tenure. The two will work on young-ins Christian Gonzalez and Milton Williams along with vets Harold Landry III and Kyle Dugger. If returning OC Josh McDaniels can make progress with Maye like then-rookie Mac Jones, this team has a bright future.
#2: Brian Schottenheimer - Four of a Kind
While it’s his first HC gimmick, Schottenheimer has been coaching the offensive side of the ball since 99’. Before that he was assistant for the Rams and Chiefs. Now he leads a Cowboys squad he’s been with for three years already.
Last year was a nightmare for their fans, but it can’t really be blamed on coaching. Sure the RB room was crowded and confusing, but how about this? Dak Prescott, Ceedee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, Jake Ferguson, Micah Parsons, Daron Bland, Demarcus Lawrence, Trevon Diggs. All super important parts of last year’s team with only Cooks not returning in 2025.
They missed a combined 54 games last year. 3 seasons. George Pickens and Javonte Williams have entered the mix as a solid WR2 and, uh… *a* running back for Dallas. (Denver fan here, don’t think this is a great move for the Cowboys.) It may be bizarre for Matt Eberflus to go from bad Bears playcaller to Brian’s new DC. I understand. But this will be his eighth year defensively working for Dallas. Offensively, Arizona’s o-line coach Klayton Adams has taken the promotion.
This is lovely development for a projected starter group with four of five members being under 25. Last year broke a three year streak of going 12-5, but the same pieces remain to bring it back if everyone can stay out of the blue tent long enough. (And if the sun doesn’t get in their eyes again. But moving on!)
#1: Ben Johnson - Royal Flush
Coaching with Miami and Detroit since 2012, Ben really made a name for himself in the last few years. Starting as the Lions’ TE coach in 2019 and helping mold TJ Hockenson, Johnson has been a centerpiece of what was being called. And while that’s what an OC does, I’m talking all the jet sweeps. All the trick plays. All the o-line feinting. Anything absurd you’ve seen work in the highlights has come from this team. Being promoted in Chicago changes a few things of course. While da Bears aren’t as good right now, a similar potential exists as in New England. Caleb Williams had a 4k scrimmage yard rookie season despite ball handling troubles. His chemistry with second-year Rome Odunze grows, who still managed 700+ yards in 24’. The same can be said with DJ Moore; who recently turned 28 and already has 7500 career REC yards. He’s caught 194 passes in two years since leaving Carolina. D’Andre Swift reunites with Johnson to perhaps get the same usage and thus productivity we’ve seen from a RB1. Colston Loveland has joined by means of draft pick #10 to be a true #1 TE after Cole Kmet couldn’t capitalize last year. Speaking of TEs, enter Declan Doyle: the new OC who worked with Denver tight ends last year. Even a re-bolstered o-line including Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson to provide more protection. And to bring this full circle by complete coincidence, enter Dennis Allen as the DC. The former NOLA coach who sludged through with the Saints before being let go now works for the most well set-up coach among new hires. With defensive pillars Kevin Byard III, Grady Jarrett, Montez Sweat, and Tremaine Edmunds; this is not a bad thing. Although chemistry takes time, playbooks and practice require a bunch of repetition: Johnson knows how his divisional rivals function. Even if changes are made, not one team is going to wipe their entire playbook system in one season for such a small difference. There’s a great chance Ben has noticed GB, MIN, and especially DET to pick up on some notes.
Out of the seven new hires, Johnson has the most ready squad and greatest potential. While I haven’t discussed age at all, Ben is tied with Liam Coen as the third youngest head coach in the NFL. Kellen Moore is actually #1. But if we look at roster, resumé, age, left and right hand men: that’s the 10, Jack, Queen, King, and Ace of Clubs here. Johnson has the best hand.